Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Another ICHIMOKU set-up (Ripe for plucking the fruits)


After plucking fruits on JPY and then EUR trade using Ichimoku set-ups, I began looking for another pair to hunt. In my search for classic Ichimoku set-ups, I'm led to USD/SGD today. USD/SGD looks ripe for a sharp sell-of to atleast 1.4391. Price has broken the cloud bottom on Ichimoku Daily. Chikou Span is below the price line. Tenkan Sen is below Kijun Sen. A classic case of STRONG BEARISH signal Supporting this bearish view, MACD in negative territory, and ADX rising from 25 to 30. I'd recommend to short USD/SGD at the current level (1.4570). And add to the shorts on any rally towards 1.4600. Stop loss : 1.4669 ;Take Profit: 1.4391


P.S. Amnot sure, if all of you have access to USD/SGD pair. But my broker www.finexo.com provides USD/SGD as a pair to trade.


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Christmas Gift! forex ..

forex strategy..
Sell USD all morning on Wednesday and then take profits either near the New York close or during the morning on Thursday. Then buy euros and pounds and Swissies again on Friday and put them under the Christmas tree. Open them up after the holiday on 29 December, go square, and close out the year.

Currency Thoughts

The major European currencies have a predictable pattern around the times of major market turns. Either the Swiss franc or British pound, or both usually lead, and the euro follows. The logic behind this is that the hot money players, as the banks sometimes call us, are the ones that cause the turns and due to lower liquidity the CHF and GBP move more than the euro. It is only after the trend becomes well established that the euro takes the lead, fueled by more conservative larger players.
It is now clear that the US dollar has lost its luster and cautious investors are starting to buy the other or `second tier' reserve currencies including the EUR, CHF and to a lesser extent the GBP. The attractiveness of these currencies isn't the yield, but rather safety. As traders become more confident of holding low interest rate currencies they will start to look for riskier currencies with higher yields. The emerging Asian currencies have been performing well due to their positive current account balances and strong reserve positions.

Recommendations for US Session ... while we wait for FOMC

USD/JPY has continued to edge lower. The support at 89.95 has come under pressure and we have seen some slippage. The short cycles call for this selling pressure to persist into Wednesday but the further support at .8910 should hold. Strength should be capped by resistance at 91.05.
EUR/JPY fell towards the support area at 122.45. Whereas we expect EUR/JPY to see some selling pressure into Wednesday this support level should hold. The resistance at 126.50 should hold over the next day and even the closer level at 124.50.
USD/CAD has been range bound and is holding just above the support at 1.2290. The cycles call for weakness into Wednesday. If the support at 1.2290 gives way further weakness to 1.2185 should be seen. The resistance at 1.2430 should hold.

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